Lula Draws Massive Crowd to Copacabana on Final Day Before Brazilian Runoff

Tens of thousands of supporters gathered on Copacabana beach in Rio de Janeiro on Saturday to back President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the final day of campaigning. The crowd filled the 2.5-mile stretch of sand in a procession that organizers described as festive, with many participants wearing red. The rally took place under a strong sun as the campaign for the presidential runoff entered its closing hours.

Lula is attempting a historic comeback against far-right rival Flávio Bolsonaro. The two candidates are currently tied in polling data. Bolsonaro won the first round on October 4 with 47 percent of the vote, while Lula received 45 percent. Since democracy was restored in Brazil in the 1980s, no candidate who lost the first round has subsequently won the runoff. A victory for Lula would therefore mark the first time this has occurred.

Approximately 159 million Brazilians are eligible to vote on Sunday. Most analysts view Bolsonaro as the slight favorite in the contest. He has positioned himself as a candidate who will confront violent crime with strict enforcement. His father, Jair Bolsonaro, served as president from 2019 to 2022. Recently, Lula has climbed in the polls amid scandals involving his opponent. Last week, the magazine Piauí reported that Flávio Bolsonaro attended a boat party with sex workers and vaccine lobbyists during the height of the 2020 coronavirus outbreak.

Supporters on the beach expressed high confidence in Lula's chances. Josias Silva, a 61-year-old truck driver, carried a sign stating that Lula would be re-elected and that tomorrow would be a new day. Silva predicted that Lula would win more than 60 percent of the vote, a margin that current polls do not support. Many attendees are part of a WhatsApp group known as Lula's Army, which has grown to 10 million members since the first round.

For many voters, the election carries stakes beyond standard political differences. Jair Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year prison sentence for plotting a coup after losing the 2022 election. Some democrats fear he could be freed or return to government if his son wins. Press reports suggest that several of his fellow plotters could receive senior military or police posts. Marta Moraes, a 59-year-old restaurateur, said she opposed the ideology of Bolsonaro rather than the right as a whole, citing the loss of four relatives during the pandemic.

Bolsonaro's campaign also mobilized supporters in the city of Belo Horizonte, the capital of Minas Gerais state. Thousands gathered in Praça da Liberdade wearing yellow shirts and waving Brazilian and US flags. Minas Gerais holds the second-largest electorate in the country and is considered a key bellwether, as no candidate has won the presidency without carrying that state. Bolsonaro led by just under 5 percent in the first round there.

Advocates for Bolsonaro in Minas Gerais defended his security platform. Antonio Carlos Costa Jr., a 59-year-old shooting club owner, stated that Jair Bolsonaro granted citizens the right to defend themselves and that his son would continue that policy. Lula's supporters in Rio pointed to Bolsonaro's documented ties to paramilitary militias in the city. Architect Erika Cavalcante, 43, carried a sign urging voters not to let the mobsters win.

The final campaign events concluded on Saturday evening, leaving the decision to the 159 million eligible voters on Sunday. The outcome will determine whether the presidency changes hands or if the incumbent secures a second term.