Balochistan Poppy Fields Expand

David Mansfield, a UK-based expert on Afghanistan's illicit drugs industry, reported that more than 9,000 hectares of poppy cultivation have emerged in Pakistan's Balochistan province. Mansfield, author of A State Built On Sand: How Opium Undermined Afghanistan, stated that the Taliban's 2022 ban on narcotics has shifted production across the border. The result, he said, is that the remote borderlands of Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iran have become a global center for opium production.

The shift began after the Taliban imposed a wide-ranging ban on illicit narcotics in 2022. Afghanistan's opium output, formerly the largest in the world, fell sharply following the ban. However, cultivation did not stop entirely. Instead, production moved into neighboring countries. Satellite imagery from Alcis, a British firm, and interviews with local farmers confirm this trend. The data indicates a steep increase in poppy cultivation in Balochistan and Iran's Sistan-Baluchistan province.

In Balochistan, which is Pakistan's largest and poorest province, the new cultivation is concentrated in the districts of Loralai and Killa Abdullah. Abdul Qahar Wadan, a former National Assembly member from Killa Abdullah, said the growth is rampant. He alleged that senior military officials and pro-government power brokers back the farms and take commissions from growers. Monawar Hussain, the district's chief administrative officer, rejected those claims. He said cultivation declined after an eradication campaign last year, but Alcis imagery from 2026 shows no clear evidence that the crop was destroyed.

Local farmers cite economic pressure as a primary driver. Lala Jan Kakar, a resident of Killa Abdullah, said insecurity, drought, and flash floods have devastated traditional fruit farming. He noted that the demand and income from poppies far exceed those from fruits. An anonymous farmer in the same district said growers pay bribes to local authorities through influential intermediaries. He claimed that when media attention increases, growers sometimes plant poppies on barren land so officials can destroy the crop and publicize the effort.

Afghan farmers from Kandahar and Helmand are playing a major role in the expansion. They cross the border to lease land, bringing money and expertise. Kakar said these farmers invest millions of Pakistani rupees in solar-powered wells and share profits with local landowners. Poppies can be harvested twice a year. Many farmers doubled their cultivated land in 2026. Mansfield called this a stark indication that much higher cultivation levels should be expected in 2027.

A similar pattern is developing in Iran. Afghan farmers work as tenants and sharecroppers there, often relying on family ties. While cultivation has been reported in provinces including Razavi Khorasan, Kermanshah, Lorestan, and Fars, Sistan-Baluchistan remains the main producing region. Satellite imagery from 2026 shows extensive poppy fields in that province. Some fields use drip irrigation, a costly investment that suggests growers planted in late 2025 with little fear of eradication. Iranian authorities, focused on the war against the United States and Israel since late February, have been unable or unwilling to destroy the 2026 crop.

Inside Afghanistan, opium cultivation is also rebounding despite the ban. Production is concentrated in northeastern Badakhshan Province, which accounts for around half of national output, and in several southwestern provinces. Mansfield said poppy cultivation remained widespread across Badakhshan's rainfed and irrigated land in 2026. In the southwest, cultivation almost doubled between 2025 and 2026. This growth was concealed within wheat fields and behind compound walls.

The Taliban has issued a directive barring home searches for poppy or opium without a court order. Mansfield warned that farmers in the southwest may interpret this concession as a signal that authorities will tolerate cultivation beyond walled compounds. If that happens, Afghanistan could see a dramatic rise in opium production in 2027. He noted that rising drug production both reflects and fuels regional violence, as armed groups compete for tax revenues from the drugs trade and other cross-border activities.