Gulf Conflict: Analysts See Third War Phase After Midterms

U.S. and Israeli leaders may resume combat against Iran once the November 3 midterm election votes are counted. Analysts warn that this third phase of war will be more destructive than the previous two. Danny Citrinowicz, an Israeli intelligence veteran who now works with the Institute for National Security Studies, described a renewed war as almost inevitable. He told CBC News that President Donald Trump faces only bad and worse options in the region.

Citrinowicz expects the next conflict to strike Gulf energy facilities, civilian infrastructure, and communication lines. He specifically identified internet cables running beneath the Strait of Hormuz as likely targets. The analyst also raised the possibility of Iran sending land forces to attack Gulf states hosting U.S. bases, such as Kuwait and Bahrain. These moves aim to inflict maximum damage on the American economy.

The current pause in major strikes has not stopped the economic pressure. The U.S. has blockaded Iranian ports while Iran targets commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. On Thursday, Trump accused Iran of inflating oil prices before the midterms on Truth Social. A report from the Critical Threats Project and the Institute for the Study of War agreed that the vessel attacks are designed to pressure Washington into meeting Iranian demands.

Those demands include sanctions relief, reparations for strike damage, the release of frozen assets, and the right to keep enriched uranium. Mediators from Pakistan and Qatar have spent weeks trying to restart talks without success. Suzanne Maloney of the Brookings Institution warned that the war has pushed Iranian leadership to double down on revolutionary ideology. She predicted retaliation would come from proxies like the Houthis and Hezbollah, targeting soft economic sites like airports.

The human toll stands at more than 7,000 deaths in Iran, according to Western NGOs. Lebanese media report over 4,000 deaths in Lebanon. The conflict has also killed 21 U.S. service members and more than 70 Israelis. Deaths were recorded in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Yemen. The Pentagon is reportedly drafting a new battle plan, though it is unclear if Trump will approve it. Netanyahu has spoken of finishing the job, while analysts like Karim Sadjadpour argue that diplomacy remains possible if Iran faces existential economic pressure and a limited diplomatic exit.

The first war began in June 2025 with strikes on nuclear facilities and lasted 12 days. The second round started in February with Israeli strikes on senior leadership, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Both conflicts ended in fragile ceasefires that have since collapsed into a state of economic warfare and proxy clashes.