Poll Finds 66% of Lebanese Shi'ites Want State Control of Hezbollah Arms

A September survey suggests that the core support base of Hezbollah is shifting its stance on the militant group's arsenal. Statistics Lebanon polled 800 Lebanese Shi'ites and found that 66.4% supported handing the group's weapons over to the Lebanese state. Only 29.6% wanted Hezbollah to retain control of the arms. The results were reported in mid-October by Israel's public broadcaster KAN and the Lebanese website Kataeb.org.

The data points to a growing preference for state authority over security matters. According to Kataeb.org, 71.1% of respondents said decisions on war and peace should rest solely with the Lebanese state. Only 5.9% believed Hezbollah's leadership should have a larger role in shaping the country's future. Trust in the Lebanese Armed Forces was high, with 78.5% of respondents expressing confidence in the army. A further 51.1% named the military as the institution best placed to guarantee long-term security, compared to just 16.5% who chose Hezbollah.

The findings challenge Hezbollah's traditional claim to represent the security interests of Lebanon's Shi'ites. The poll found that 67.4% said the group had failed or only partially met its goals in the war with Israel. Additionally, 42.1% voiced disappointment, anger, or concern about its leadership and the consequences of the conflict. Despite this dissatisfaction, 59.5% still expressed some trust in the group, including 37.1% who reported a great deal of trust. Roi Kais of KAN noted that support networks and status sustain Hezbollah's strength as long as no other entity fills the vacuum.

These results differ sharply from earlier data. In a June 10 analysis for the Israel Institute for National Security Studies, researchers Orna Mizrahi and Moran Levanoni cited a May 2026 survey by Lebanon's Information International. That poll found 87.5% of Shi'ite respondents opposed disarming Hezbollah, with only 7.9% supporting the transfer of weapons. More than 90% opposed ties with Israel in that survey. Mizrahi and Levanoni argued that weakening the group requires a stronger army and financial support so the state can replace the services Hezbollah provides.

Local reactions also show wariness of the group's presence. In the southern city of Tyre, property owners reportedly opposed opening a branch of the Hezbollah-linked financial institution Al-Qard Al-Hassan in their building, fearing it could be targeted in an Israeli strike. Such branches have been hit in previous attacks. Meanwhile, Hezbollah announced aid of up to $14,000 for eligible families in Beirut and its southern suburbs whose primary homes were destroyed, and up to $12,000 elsewhere. The group has suffered major military losses, including the killing of Hassan Nasrallah in September 2024, and a new war broke out in March 2026 that caused heavy destruction in southern villages.