58 Seats: The New Threshold for Israeli Minority Government Bids

The anti-Netanyahu coalition faces a strategic split as it prepares for the next election. Gadi Eisenkot wants to lead a minority cabinet if his bloc secures 58 or 59 seats. Rivals Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Liberman reject the plan, insisting on a Zionist majority of 61 seats from the start.

Current polls show the opposition ahead of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s camp, yet no side holds a clear path to 61 votes. A small shift in vote distribution could determine whether Israel forms a new government or faces another election. Eisenkot’s proposal relies on the legal distinction between forming a government and removing one.

Swearing in a new government requires a majority in the confidence vote, meaning abstentions can allow a minority cabinet to take office. Removing an incumbent government, however, requires 61 votes in a constructive motion of no confidence. This legal nuance allows a change-seeking bloc to install a new leader without a permanent base of 61 MKs.

Eisenkot has not ruled out outside support from the Ra'am party, though no formula for that cooperation exists yet. Liberman categorically rejects any minority arrangement, even a transitional one. He stated that another election would be preferable to a government that does not meet his conditions for a Zionist majority.

Bennett and Yair Lapid share Liberman’s skepticism. They refuse to rely on the votes or abstentions of Arab parties. A meeting between Eisenkot and Liberman this week produced a joint call to raise voter turnout but failed to resolve their disagreement on the cabinet’s size.

The bloc is also moving to replace Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana before any coalition is finalized. Controlling the speaker’s office would give opponents control of the parliamentary agenda even if Netanyahu remains head of a caretaker government. Candidates for the speaker’s seat include Chili Tropper, Matan Kahana, Elazar Stern, Meirav Ben-Ari, Eitan Ginzburg, Efrat Rayten, and Oded Forer.

Liberman estimated that one-third of outgoing coalition MKs might vote against Ohana in a public session. The bloc also aims to pass a state commission of inquiry into October 7, adjust conscription laws, limit prime ministerial tenure, and repeal parts of the outgoing government’s judicial changes. No binding agreement exists on the order of these legislative goals.

Leadership rivalry continues between Eisenkot and Bennett. Eisenkot seeks to head the largest party, while Bennett cites his experience as prime minister. The bloc faces obstacles in implementing its agenda, including differing views on judicial reforms and the constitutional hurdles facing laws aimed at Netanyahu.