Arab bloc to decide Knesset balance

Voters in Kfar Qasim gathered at sunset on October 22 to hear campaign pitches.

Palestinian citizens of Israel make up roughly 20% of the country's population.

Their turnout in next week's election could determine who controls the Knesset.

Most polls indicate Benjamin Netanyahu's far-right coalition will lose its current majority.

The Jewish Israeli opposition is also projected to miss the 61-seat threshold needed to form a government.

Palestinian parties are forecast to win between 12 and 15 seats in the 120-member legislature.

Those seats will split between the Islamist Ra'am party and the Joint List alliance.

Ahmad Tibi, leader of the Ta'al party, stated that high turnout is a key tool to end the current government's tenure.

Tibi has served in the Knesset for more than two decades.

Most Jewish opposition leaders have ruled out governing with Arab politicians.

Netanyahu and his allies have used campaign slogans like "Bibi or Tibi" to make such alliances seem toxic.

Israel has appointed only two Palestinian ministers in its history: Raleb Majadele and Issawi Frej. Their tenures were short and limited in scope. Yet promises to exclude them have been broken before. In 2021, Ra'am leader Mansour Abbas joined a coalition with Naftali Bennett. Netanyahu also opened coalition talks with Abbas in the past. A hi-tech manager named Mohammed believes the opposition will accept an alliance once the final numbers are in. He described the situation as simple mathematics. He is urging friends of all backgrounds to vote. Forming a coalition will be difficult for Palestinian politicians as well. Few opposition parties support a two-state solution. Most strongly oppose a Palestinian state and back the settlement movement in the West Bank. Tibi described his choice as being between "bad and worse." He said voters are choosing between Netanyahu, Bezalel Smotrich, and Itamar Ben-Gvir on one side, and the opposition on the other. Fear is driving many voters to the polls. The war in Gaza, violence in the West Bank, and rising discrimination inside Israel have increased anxiety about another four years of far-right rule. Sami Abu Shehadeh, leader of the Balad party, said the biggest motivation is fear of seeing "these criminals come back to rule again." Distrust of the electoral system has suppressed turnout in the past. Last month, Israel's supreme court removed Abu Shehadeh from the race over an article about the October 7 attacks. The ruling drew criticism for applying different free speech standards to Jewish and Palestinian citizens. A motion to disqualify national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir over his racist language was not upheld. Some voters, like Haaretz journalist Nagham Zbeedat, abstain on principle. Amjed Iraqi of the International Crisis Group said a returning far-right coalition would have a mandate to accelerate annexation and displacement. He noted that the vote is largely about mitigation. The election occurs two days before Kfar Qasim marks the 1956 massacre in which police killed 49 residents during a curfew.