640,000 Young Israelis Set to Cast First Ballots Tuesday

Israelis go to the polls on Tuesday, October 27, for a national election where new citizens hold substantial sway. The Israel Democracy Institute estimates that 640,000 people between the ages of 18 and 22 are eligible to vote. This group constitutes nearly 10% of the total electorate. Their collective choice could decide as many as 12 seats in the 120-member Knesset.

Yael Chernyvsky, an 18-year-old from Ramat Hasharon, spoke at a recent event in a Tel Aviv auditorium. The gathering was co-sponsored by the Israel Democracy Institute and the Yigal Allon Center. More than 1,000 first-time voters attended, many of whom are currently in pre-military preparation programs. Chernyvsky, who is studying in a Negev army prep course, stated that she is voting to change the country's future. She blamed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government for current domestic issues.

Chernyvsky has not finalized her party choice. She said she would likely support either the Democrats, led by Yair Golan, or Yashar, led by Gadi Eisenkot. Both parties are part of the opposition change bloc seeking to remove Netanyahu from power. He has served as prime minister since 2009, with a brief interruption in 2021 and 2022.

Tammy Hoffman, head of the education policy program at the Israel Democracy Institute, explained that Israel is a young nation with a high birth rate. She noted that high turnout among this demographic will make a difference in the final tally. A survey conducted by the institute in May asked prospective first-time Jewish and Arab voters about their intentions. Between 80% and 95% of respondents said they would definitely or probably vote. Secular Jewish youth showed the highest certainty, while 87% of Arab respondents indicated they intend to vote.

A separate poll for Ynet and Yedioth Ahronoth found that 67% of young respondents were certain they would vote. An additional 19% said they thought they would. In both surveys, national security and the cost of living were the top concerns for Jewish and Arab youth. Hoffman attributed these priorities to the experiences of this generation, including the pandemic, judicial reform protests, and the events of October 7. She described them as worried about their future.

Political leanings remain difficult to pin down. Hoffman observed that Jewish Israeli voters have trended rightward over the past two decades. However, she suggested that military service can shift views leftward by raising questions about war goals. An N12 poll from September 23 found that 74% of young people described their views as right-wing or center-right. Another 23% identified as left-wing or center-left. In that poll, 16% supported Eisenkot's Yashar party and 14% supported Netanyahu's Likud.

Mock elections in high schools showed different results. Most students backed Yashar and Beyachad, which is led by former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid. Some support went to Likud, while Itamar Ben-Gvir's far-right party received little backing. Individual voters reflect this range of opinions. Omer Gross, from Jerusalem and currently in an army prep program in the Golan, plans to vote for the Religious Zionist party. He supports the policies of leaders Bezalel Smotrich and Moshe Feiglin in the West Bank, though he disagrees with their approach in Gaza.

Gross said he needs a strong and secure Israel. His program-mate Tomer Shiloh, 18, from Herziliyah, will vote for the change bloc. He wants the next government to require ultra-Orthodox men to serve in the IDF and to lower living costs. A 22-year-old reservist, identified as Sgt. M for anonymity, cited universal service as his top priority. He will vote for the Democrats on economic grounds, pointing to the costs of tuition, books, food, and housing. Khalel Alaa Sabeh, 18, from Shef-Amra, wants an Arab party that addresses resource gaps and crime in Arab communities. He urged his friends to vote and stated that he will not leave the country.

The election will determine the composition of the Knesset for the next four years. Parties must meet a minimum vote threshold to enter the parliament. The distribution of seats among the 120 members will depend on the final vote count. The presence of nearly 10% first-time voters introduces a variable that could influence the balance of power among the major blocs.