Ottawa proposes buying eight German subs now, four later
Canadian negotiators suggest splitting the Type 212CD purchase to preserve budget flexibility, a move that could alter the scale of promised economic benefits for Germany and Canada.
By Emmanuel Obasi ·
Federal officials have proposed splitting the purchase of German Type 212CD submarines into two distinct phases. The plan involves an immediate order for eight vessels, with an option to buy four more in the future. Three confidential sources told CBC News that this structure would replace the previous commitment to a single contract for up to twelve boats.
The proposal emerged during meetings last week in Ottawa. Representatives from the Defence Investment Agency met with officials from German submarine builder TKMS and Norwegian defense firm Kongsberg. Sources indicated that the Canadian side has discussed this split order for several weeks, a strategy first considered during a round of meetings in Europe in September.
The change in scope is drawing attention across the Atlantic. German government officials are assessing how a smaller initial order impacts the $86 billion in economic investment promised to Canada last summer. TKMS is currently consulting with its 400 suppliers to understand the potential operational and financial effects of the reduced batch.
Prime Minister Mark Carney announced in July that TKMS defeated South Korea's Hanwha Ocean for the contract. At the time, he stated Canada was committed to buying up to 12 submarines. Federal officials now seek greater flexibility for future governments, as deliveries are not expected to begin until the mid-2030s. The rollout period will likely exceed a decade. Some officials also cite the potential rise of cheaper drone technology as a factor in the decision.
The total cost to replace the aging Victoria-Class fleet with 12 new submarines is estimated between $20 billion and $24 billion. Full life cycle costs, including operations, maintenance, and repairs, are projected to exceed $100 billion over twenty years. The Navy argues that 12 boats are necessary to patrol Canada's three-ocean coastline and support allied missions in the Indo-Pacific.
Sofiya Sapeha, spokesperson for Secretary of State for Defence Procurement Stephen Fuhr, confirmed the government's pledge for up to 12 modern submarines. She stated that the Defence Investment Agency is working to secure a contract that provides maximum benefits for Canadians across the country. Because the procurement process is active, officials declined to comment on the specific status of the negotiations.
TKMS spokesperson Andrew Bernardo said negotiations remain on track. He described the talks as productive and focused on a long-term strategic partnership that maximizes opportunities for Canadian industry. Thomas Röwekamp, head of the German Parliament's defence committee, visited Ottawa last week. He expressed confidence that the deal will move forward, noting that Germany and Norway have already given up production slots to ensure Canada receives four boats by 2036.
Prime Minister Carney has set a deadline to secure the contract by the end of 2027. One source noted that an upfront commitment of eight submarines remains a very large number. The German bid included major economic projects, such as a carbon capture facility in Alberta and upgrades to the Port of Churchill in Manitoba. Analyst Dave Perry of the Canadian Global Affairs Institute warned that splitting the order could shrink promised benefits unless the full package is committed to initially. He compared the strategy to Ottawa's plan to buy 15 destroyers with an initial commitment to just three.
