Israelis Vote in Split Race With No Clear Path to Majority

Israeli voters cast ballots on Tuesday in a general election that determines the next prime minister. Exit polls scheduled for 22:00 local time will provide early indications of the outcome. The race is defined by a near tie between incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former military chief Gadi Eisenkot.

Neither candidate’s political bloc is projected to win the 61 seats required for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset. This mathematical reality suggests a period of complex coalition negotiations. If no bloc can assemble a majority, Israel faces the risk of political deadlock and new elections.

The campaign centered on security and governance. The opposition bloc criticized Netanyahu for the October 7, 2023 attacks by Hamas, which resulted in nearly 1,200 deaths and the capture of 251 hostages. They demanded an independent commission of inquiry, a move Netanyahu opposed. Netanyahu countered by framing himself as the leader capable of managing regional threats, citing strategic victories and his relationship with US President Donald Trump.

Eisenkot leads the newly formed Yashar Party, the anchor of a change bloc that includes former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, Avigdor Lieberman, and Yair Golan. This coalition unites right-wingers and left-leaning figures under the common goal of removing Netanyahu from power. Netanyahu relies on his current governing coalition, which includes far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties, often described as the most right-wing in Israeli history.

Two Arab party blocs are also in the race. Approximately one-fifth of Israel’s population is Arab, and these parties could theoretically serve as kingmakers. However, all but one leading Jewish party have ruled out formal alliances with them. Lieberman has explicitly excluded the possibility of supporting an Eisenkot-led minority government with informal Arab support.

Issues of conscription and judicial reform also shaped the debate. The government has failed to enforce a Supreme Court ruling requiring full-time ultra-Orthodox men in religious study to serve in the military. Netanyahu continues to pursue judicial reforms, a move that sparked mass protests before the October 7 attacks. Eisenkot supports these changes and has pledged to end Hamas rule in Gaza within 18 months, either through a US-led peace plan or military action.

Recent events added to the campaign’s intensity. Channel 12 reported that Netanyahu sought last-minute military action against Iran but was opposed by Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir. CNN reported that Trump refused Netanyahu’s request for new strikes on Iran. Netanyahu denied both accounts. He also posted an AI-generated image of a nuclear bomb hitting Tel Aviv, a move Eisenkot described as hysterical.

The war in Gaza continues, with Israeli strikes reported almost daily since last year’s ceasefire. The Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza states that more than 74,000 people have died since the war began. Israel faces growing international criticism over its conduct, and relations with allies have strained. Eisenkot supports settlements in the West Bank but aims to crack down on extremist settlers. He has proposed conditions for Palestinian autonomy or a state-minus under Israeli security control.

Logistical challenges accompany the vote. An estimated 70,000 Israelis flew home from abroad to vote. Hundreds of thousands are casting ballots for the first time. Votes from soldiers and reservists, who have strong support for right-wing parties, may not be counted until Wednesday, potentially altering the final tally.

If the results confirm a lack of majority, Israel enters a negotiation phase. Between 2019 and 2022, the country held five elections due to similar coalition failures. Netanyahu will remain interim prime minister if deadlock occurs. Likud members will gather in Jerusalem to watch the results, while Yashar supporters assemble in Tel Aviv.