Trump team readies switch to Israeli opposition ahead of October 27 vote

US President Donald Trump's closest advisers are preparing to shift their diplomatic focus toward Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's political rivals if the incumbent loses Israel's election on October 27. US officials told Axios that the White House views a change in leadership in Jerusalem as a viable path forward for bilateral cooperation.

One senior Trump adviser summarized the internal sentiment with blunt clarity, stating, "[Netanyahu] is the devil [Trump] knows." This perspective contrasts with the president's public stance, as many of his inner circle members opposed his decision to formally endorse Netanyahu. These staffers argued that the US should remain neutral in the Israeli election to preserve leverage.

Vice President JD Vance navigated the tension this week when asked about the race. He told reporters, "I'm not attacking Bibi Netanyahu. I'm not endorsing Bibi Netanyahu. I think the president's endorsement is ultimately what matters," effectively leaving the final judgment to the president while signaling his own distance from the campaign.

The latest Maariv poll indicates that the opposition bloc now holds a lead of 54 seats to Netanyahu's bloc of 48. In a head to head matchup for the prime ministership, Benny Gantz's successor as opposition leader, Eisenkot, commands 49 percent support compared to 41 percent for Netanyahu. The survey also found that 60 percent of respondents would prefer a unity government if no single party secures a majority, with 33 percent of that group wanting the opposition to lead.

Frictions within the administration over specific Israeli policies are fueling the debate. US Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack criticized recent Israeli strikes in Syria's Idlib province, calling the attack an "unnecessary escalation that does not advance regional stability." Meanwhile, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and his team have maintained a stronger personal relationship with the prime minister but have expressed frustration with Israel's handling of settler attacks in the West Bank and its efforts to strengthen the Lebanese government.

The administration is thus positioning itself for two scenarios. If Netanyahu wins, the existing relationships under Rubio will likely guide policy. If the opposition takes power, the White House is ready to engage a new leadership that may prioritize different regional stability goals. The vote occurs three days from now.

The shift in posture is driven by the numbers in the polls and the visible disagreements among top aides. With the opposition leading by six seats, the White House is treating the potential transition as a concrete planning item rather than a hypothetical.