Pollster's confidence clashes with party anxiety

Nearly one-third of Israeli voters remained undecided days before the election, a statistic that has fractured Likud leadership as polls open on Tuesday. While some insiders trust the internal data, others fear the scale of outside spending is distorting the final count. This division comes with the government on the verge of completing its full term.

The internal rift centers on Shlomo Filber, who manages the party's polling. Filber's forecasts suggest a strong showing for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. However, a Likud source described the mood as polarized. "We have some who are very sure of themselves, and some who are less so," the source said. Regarding Filber's influence, the source added: "Either Momo comes out a king, or Momo goes home. It is one or the other."

The skepticism stems from a coordinated effort by organizations outside the official party structure. These groups have directed large sums of money toward mobilizing voters in the camp opposed to Netanyahu. The operations included social media ads, roadside signs, and field events. Specific measures included arranging rides for Arab voters and funding flights for Israelis living abroad to return and cast ballots.

Party officials labeled this push "the nonprofits affair on steroids." They argued that these entities created a support network that bypassed standard party financing limits. Likud also criticized the Central Elections Committee. The party claimed the committee focused on regulating campaign videos and public resource use while ignoring the activity of these outside organizations. However, party sources did not provide documentation for the specific funding amounts or proof that the activities broke the law.

To counter these efforts, Likud is organizing a large-scale ground operation for Election Day. The team faces restrictions on gathering information from polling stations. Their primary goal is to prevent right-wing voters from drifting to smaller parties. Negotiations to bring Brig.-Gen. (res.) Ofer Winter out of the race failed. Winter, a former Givati Brigade commander and head of the People of Israel party, remained on the ballot even after talks involving Rabbi Eli Sadan. Sadan later issued a statement backing Winter.

Likud is also courting supporters of other right-wing slates, including the joint ticket of Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha. The Ahi party, led by Rabbi Abergel, has already dropped out of the race. This withdrawal followed talks with Likud, during which the parties discussed legislation that would allow the Ahi party to name a deputy minister.

Israelis head to the polls on Tuesday, October 27. The date was set to allow Netanyahu’s government to finish its full term. The election follows a period of intense internal debate over whether the party's data or the rivals' spending power holds the key to the result.