Mid-Round Pitchers Outperform Top 24 Draft Picks

Starting pitchers picked in the 25th through 36th rounds of the 2026 fantasy baseball drafts generated $155.60 in value, according to FanGraphs Player Rater data. That total nearly matched the $158.94 produced by the top 12 starters taken in the earliest rounds. The group selected 13th through 24th fared worst, returning just $67.83.

The disparity marks the third consecutive year in which the SP25-36 tier has outperformed the SP13-24 tier. From 2021 to 2025, the top 24 drafted starters combined for at least $259.10 in value each season. In 2026, that figure dropped to $227.00. The decline occurred despite the mid-to-late rounds delivering the bulk of the value for the first time in the five-year sample.

Jacob Misiorowski of the Milwaukee Brewers anchored the high-value group. His 0.80 WHIP and 37.9 percent strikeout rate are the second-best marks in Major League Baseball history, excluding the 60-game 2020 season. He posted a 1.80 ERA after starting his career with a 4.36 mark. Misiorowski is projected to be the first pick in most 2027 drafts. Cam Schlittler of the New York Yankees finished second in that tier, posting a 1.95 ERA and 239 strikeouts. He is the leading candidate for the American League Cy Young Award.

Contrastingly, the first round of 2026 yielded three disappointing selections. Only eight of the top 24 drafted starters finished the season as top-24 fantasy performers. Garrett Crochet of the Chicago White Sox made it through six starts before injury ended his campaign. Paul Skenes of the Pittsburgh Pirates struggled in the final four and a half months of the season, posting a 4.56 ERA and a 22 percent strikeout rate in August and September. Despite these setbacks, Skenes finished with a 3.82 ERA and 200 strikeouts.

For the 2027 season, the analyst notes a different talent pool. Kade Anderson, Didier Fuentes, and Grant Taylor represent the new wave of young pitchers, though their roles remain uncertain. Jared Jones and Walbert Ureña are cited as stronger options than the previous year's crop due to larger track records. Drew Rasmussen of the Tampa Bay Rays moved up in rankings after the team removed restrictions on his workload. He maintained an ERA below 2.84 in every role since 2020. The draft order for 2027 will be set as owners select their rosters in the coming weeks.

The data suggests that early-round starters do not guarantee value in 2027. The 25th through 36th rounds produced the highest value tier in four of the last five seasons. Owners are advised to evaluate the 2027 pool based on current workload and injury history rather than prior draft status. The 2026 season demonstrated that elite performance can emerge from players previously considered mid-tier or late-round options.