Bennett and Goldknopf face key tests in coalition math

Naftali Bennett and Yitzhak Goldknopf sit at the center of new calculations for forming a government after the upcoming election. Political figures are weighing two distinct paths that could determine who leads the next Knesset. One route involves securing backing from the three-member Agudat Yisrael faction. The other relies on Bennett potentially joining a Likud-led coalition if the opposition fails to gather enough seats.

Assessments within the political establishment suggest Agudat Yisrael might support a government led by opposition members. This support could take the form of budgetary agreements. However, even with Agudat Yisrael’s help, the government may still need votes from Arab parties to pass legislation. These talks follow reports from Maariv in August that Goldknopf was examining cooperation with Gadi Eisenkot. The move comes amid internal tensions in United Torah Judaism, specifically over the haredi military draft and relations with Prime Minister Netanyahu.

Rabbi Dov Lando recently sent a letter expressing doubts about maintaining the current political bloc. This communication added to the uncertainty regarding ties between haredi parties and Likud. Goldknopf faces a challenge because his voters lean toward the Right. If he supports an opposition-led government, some of his base may switch their allegiance to Likud or Otzma Yehudit.

Bennett presents a different option if neither major bloc reaches the 61-seat majority. Some believe he is the only leader in the change bloc with the right background to join a Netanyahu-led government. Such a shift would require Bennett to change his political support base. The composition of his current party complicates this possibility, as it is not designed for a right-leaning alliance.

Analysts also considered Avigdor Liberman for a similar role. Liberman previously served as defense minister in a Netanyahu government. Current assessments say he is unlikely to make that move again. Personal and political disagreements between Liberman and the Prime Minister make a close relationship improbable at this time.

These scenarios remain under discussion as the vote approaches. The central issue for coalition negotiations will be whether Bennett or Goldknopf can secure the necessary seats. The parties have not yet reached any formal agreements on these paths.