Ukrainian Drone Strikes Force Daily Closures at Major Moscow Airports

Ukrainian drone operations have grounded flights at all four major airports serving Moscow almost every day in October.

The disruption has intensified this month. Independent investigators at Agentstvo reported that Domodedovo, Sheremetyevo, Zhukovsky, and Vnukovo suspended operations daily. Some days saw closures lasting as long as nine hours. This pattern follows a strategic shift announced by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in early September. He stated that Ukraine would seek to cut off airspace around Moscow and other Russian destinations.

Zelenskyy addressed airlines, insurers, and travelers directly. He declared, "Russian airspace will become completely unsafe." Ukraine sent a matching warning to the International Civil Aviation Organization the next day. Ukraine's own airspace has remained closed since Russia's full-scale invasion began in February 2022.

The primary mechanism for these closures is a safety procedure managed by Russia's aviation authority, Rosaviatsiya. Known as the 'carpet' protocol, this rule immediately closes airspace over a region if an aircraft violates borders, weapons are used, or unidentified objects appear. Strict limits then apply to all air traffic. Oleksandr Laneckij, chief executive of Friendly Avia Support, explained that every drone poses a military threat under this system. He compared the situation to the Houthis in Yemen, who disrupted Saudi airspace, but noted that Ukraine's military capabilities far exceed theirs.

Military analyst Jan Matvejev stated that Ukraine faces little difficulty in disrupting air traffic around Moscow. He argued that triggering the protocol requires only simple drones without warheads or long range. Ukraine's arms industry can produce hundreds of combat-ready long-range drones per day. Simon Shuster of The Atlantic cited well-informed sources in October to say Ukraine's efforts are just getting started.

Matvejev noted that Russian air defenses are not fully effective against these drones. He observed that if it were possible to shoot them down, Russia would have done so by now. He added that Russia would have deployed more air-defense troops if available. Both experts warned about risks to civilian flights. Laneckij said Russia might lower the threshold for declaring the carpet protocol, raising the danger of deadly incidents. The 2024 Christmas day crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines flight killed 38 people when it was hit by a Russian air-defense missile fired to counter drones.

Matvejev said little has changed in Russia's air-defense protocol since that crash. He distinguished between low-flying drones identified visually and shot with machine guns, which pose an extremely low risk to aircraft, and missiles. He warned that defects in mass-produced missiles could send them toward nearby airliners. Matvejev added that drones need no explosives to cause harm because a collision can be serious. A drone flown from Ukraine to Moscow must be fairly large, weighing dozens of kilograms. Ukrainian forces attacked Pskov airport in the summer of 2023, and drone debris fell on Sochi airport earlier this month. Russia has also struck Ukrainian airports. In September, Zelenskyy said Kyiv's airport and Boryspil were hit.

Laneckij stated that foreign airlines' decision to keep flying to Russia will depend on three factors: the military threat, demand, and insurance costs. If insurers rate the risk as very high, they could sharply raise premiums, sending ticket prices soaring. Competition in Russia's aviation market has already shrunk because many airlines have gone out of business. This has pushed up demand for seats on the remaining foreign carriers. Laneckij concluded that whether carriers stay depends on the price they have to pay for the danger faced.