Historical averages point to a 35-seat loss for the president's party

History suggests President Trump’s party faces a steep drop in House seats this November, with an average loss of 35 seats when a president’s approval rating falls below 50%. Trump’s current standing sits in that lower bracket, setting a difficult baseline for the Republican majority as midterm elections approach.

The economic backdrop drives much of the pressure on the president. Voters cite rising prices on goods and energy, linked to tariffs and the conflict with Iran, as primary concerns. A recent NPR/PBS News/Marist poll found that 38% of respondents said their financial situations have worsened, while only 15% reported improvement. This sentiment contrasts with the 2024 mandate to lower costs and has intensified opposition to the administration.

Structural factors complicate the picture for both parties. The Cook Political Report identifies roughly 30 fewer competitive districts this year than in 2018, when Democrats gained more than 40 seats. Mid-decade redistricting has provided Republicans with an estimated eight-seat advantage, a benefit that may be tempered by voting patterns among Latinos in South Texas.

Democrats are favored to take control of the House and are in striking distance of the Senate, a position seen as unlikely at the start of the cycle. The party has overperformed in special elections and off-year contests, aided by dissatisfaction with immigration enforcement and cuts to domestic programs like Medicaid. However, internal divisions persist, with self-identified democratic socialists showing high engagement and a strong desire to vote against Trump.

Republican candidates are increasingly distancing themselves from the president in campaign advertisements, a shift from the heavy Trump mentions during the primaries. This reflects a private acknowledgment that the president is a liability with swing voters while remaining a draw for the base. Trump has been deployed to red states to push for higher turnout, a factor that could determine whether a small Democratic Senate gain becomes a larger one.

The post-election period may bring further uncertainty. Trump has signaled readiness to contest results, a pattern seen after the 2020 election. While most voters across parties believe their states will conduct fair elections, a quarter of Republicans indicated their candidate might not accept the outcome. This sets the stage for potential delays in determining party control, particularly in tight Senate races.