Hegseth Orders Military to Stop Betting on War Outcomes

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has directed military personnel to stop using nonpublic information to place bets on prediction markets. The new rules aim to prevent adversaries from tracking American troop movements and timing through financial data.

The directive, dated October 20, was sent to senior Pentagon leaders, Combatant Command heads, and directors of Defense Department field activities. CBS News published the memo on October 22. The document carries the subject line 'Do Not Compromise Military Operations for Personal Financial Gain.'

Hegseth argues that enemies actively monitor these platforms. He stated that when a service member, intelligence professional, or civilian makes a financial transaction tied to a military outcome, they create a signal. Hostile foreign intelligence services can then aggregate, correlate, and exploit that signal to anticipate US targets and timing.

The memo emphasizes that the lives of service members often depend on the enemy not knowing what is coming. Hegseth wrote that those who carry the flag into harm's way deserve a force that protects them, rather than one that exposes them for personal gain.

The prohibition applies to all financial platforms. This includes traditional betting services and prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi. Department personnel may not make any financial transaction informed by nonpublic information, whether that information is classified or unclassified.

The order follows a criminal case from April. A US Army soldier was arrested and charged with using confidential information to make $410,000 in Polymarket bets. The wagers concerned the timing of the military's capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

Concerns about the practice extend beyond that single incident. An August report from the Anti-Corruption Data Collective identified 152 suspicious wallets. These wallets placed longshot bets on military and defense markets. Together, they won a combined $8 million.

Hegseth frames betting as a threat to judgment. His message to commanders is that personal financial stakes in military outcomes can compromise operations and put troops at risk.