War Costs: Rubio cites 20,000 monthly Russian deaths as he questions peace prospects

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio estimated that approximately 20,000 Russian soldiers are killed each month in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. He provided that figure while describing the war as a deadly and destructive struggle that complicates future reconstruction efforts for both nations.

Rubio spoke at the closing news conference for the G20 foreign ministers meeting in Atlanta, Georgia, which concluded on October 31. He told reporters that Washington is still trying to determine if a negotiated settlement is possible. He stated that he does not know if negotiated peace is achievable and that no one should claim the parties are on the verge of an agreement. He noted that President Donald Trump’s envoys, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, are dedicating much of their time to the Ukraine and Iran portfolios.

European officials who spoke to RFE/RL on condition of anonymity said Rubio privately shared his doubts with Western counterparts during the two-day gathering. The diplomats indicated that Rubio questioned whether Russian President Vladimir Putin would attend the G20 summit planned for December in Miami. Trump intends to host the event at his Doral resort in Florida. Rubio publicly admitted uncertainty about Putin’s attendance, noting that Moscow has not confirmed the Russian leader’s plans.

The European officials said Rubio defended the administration’s decision to invite Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to Atlanta and extend an invitation to Putin. Rubio argued that diplomatic engagement is necessary to reach a settlement. He asked reporters how a negotiated settlement between Russia and Ukraine could occur without the ability to talk to both sides. He also cited the danger of nuclear escalation as a reason to maintain communication channels between Washington and Moscow.

During private discussions, Rubio reportedly described Ukraine’s potential NATO membership as unrealistic in the short term. He warned that Russia’s acquisition of the entire Donbas region would not satisfy the Kremlin’s territorial ambitions. The State Department did not immediately respond to requests for comment on these reported private remarks.

While a comprehensive peace deal remains elusive, Rubio identified a cease-fire covering the Black Sea as a specific diplomatic objective. European officials pressed Moscow to halt attacks on shipping in the waterway, which is vital for Ukrainian agricultural exports. Rubio cautioned that he would not call current efforts momentum, but noted growing interest from countries like Turkey and India to act as guarantors or facilitators. He warned that disruptions to grain and energy shipments are threatening global food and energy security.

The Atlanta meeting ended without a joint communique due to disagreements over Ukraine, the Middle East, trade, and maritime security. The US presidency issued a chairman’s statement instead, which listed shared priorities such as energy and food security but made no mention of Russia, Ukraine, or the war. The gathering exposed divisions, with several delegations refusing to join a traditional group photo with Lavrov, leading to the photograph’s cancellation. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas accused Lavrov of presenting false narratives, while Lavrov criticized Europe’s boycott. Rubio said the US would not rule out an invitation for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to attend the Miami summit, though that decision rests with President Trump.