Texas Hispanic Support Erodes

The Rio Grande Valley delivered 55% of its Hispanic votes to Donald Trump in 2024. That figure remains a record for a Republican presidential candidate in the state. New surveys indicate that support is now fading rapidly. The midterm elections arrive on November 3.

Father Roy Snipes, a priest in the La Lomita Catholic Chapel, addressed a congregation of about 30 people. The chapel sits 200 yards from the Rio Grande. He criticized the actions of Immigration and Customs Enforcement. "There's no good excuse to detain, incarcerate and deport poor, good folks who are our neighbours," he said. Government data shows Texas accounted for roughly one-third of all ICE arrests nationwide in July 2026.

Border crossing numbers have dropped to levels unseen in decades. Former President Joe Biden's administration recorded more than 2.5 million apprehensions in a single year. Trump campaigned on ending those crossings. His promise helped him win the region. Recent polling taken since late summer shows a majority of Hispanic voters in Texas now disapprove of the president. They favor Democrats over Republicans by a wide margin.

Javier Villalobos, the Republican mayor of McAllen, expects a difficult race. He credits the administration with securing the border. "Most people accept deporting criminals, he said. But deporting productive, law-abiding people is where the problem begins." Mario Guerrero, a local builder, voted for Trump three times. He plans to vote for a Democrat in November. His construction crew has shrunk from 35 workers to as few as four.

Republican consultant Mike Madrid notes that Latinos often identify as independents. Republicans redrew the 15th district in 2025. The map gave them a notional 18-point advantage. Current polling shows a Democratic lead of five or six points in that district. Democratic candidate Bobby Pulido, a Tejano singer, focuses on the economy rather than national party branding. "This isn't New York, this isn't LA," he told voters.

Cost of living remains the top concern for many residents. Dave Baldwin and Veronica Salazar blamed the president for rising prices at a local festival. "He is in control of our destiny with all that, and right now he's not doing a very good job," Baldwin said. Republican student volunteer Alexis Uscanga described the midterms as a game of turnout. Tano Tijerina, the Republican candidate in the 28th district, acknowledged that national political headwinds are real.

Democrats have not won a US Senate seat in Texas in more than 30 years. A modest swing back toward the Democratic Party could put that seat in play. The polls suggest this shift is currently underway in the region.