Early 2027 Fantasy Drafts: Ohtani Remains No. 2 as Judge Slides to Pick 10
Data from 18 completed best-ball leagues shows Aaron Judge falling out of the top five while Jacob Misiorowski commands the top starting pitcher slot.
By Thabo Hoffmann ·
The 2027 fantasy baseball offseason has begun, with 18 completed drafts on the NFBC platform providing an early look at player values. These leagues are best-ball formats without waivers or trading, meaning the data reflects a different strategy than traditional 12-team leagues. The sample is small and noisy, but it offers a concrete snapshot of how managers are currently viewing the market.
Shohei Ohtani holds the second overall average draft position. He finished as the No. 40 hitter in 2026, a drop from his previous career low of 21st in 2022. Despite the decline, his 2024 performance of a .300 average and 50-plus home runs still anchors his value. Managers drafting him in the second slot are betting that his 2026 slide was an anomaly rather than the start of an aging curve decline.
Aaron Judge has fallen to nearly the end of the first round. He will be 35 shortly after the 2027 Opening Day and missed 106 games in 2026. His strikeout rate jumped from 24% to 30% last season. While his expected wOBA on contact remained the best in baseball at .537, he trailed James Wood by four-thousandths of a point, a margin much smaller than the gaps he held over rivals in 2024 and 2025.
Jacob Misiorowski is the consensus first starting pitcher. His average draft position of 9.12 sits well ahead of Tarik Skubal at 14.06. Misiorowski was drafted as high as the seventh pick overall and as low as the 18th. Cam Schlittler forms the next tier at 16.65. The gap between the top two starters indicates that Misiorowski’s historic 2026 season has solidified his status as the most valuable arm in the league.
Konnor Griffin is being drafted in the second round. He played 80 games as a rookie in 2026. Doubling his per-game production projects a .272 average, 12 home runs, 86 runs, 66 RBI, and 46 steals. This output is lower than the price tag suggests, though his final 61 games showed a .297 average and 16 home runs. Managers are paying for his youth and raw power, betting on future improvement over current production.
Paul Skenes remains a top-10 starter, specifically the eighth overall. He was drafted between the 21st and 40th picks in the available data. His career stats include a 2.62 ERA, 2.83 xERA, and 2.73 FIP. However, his velocity dropped as the 2026 season progressed, a trend that projection systems may not fully account for. The uncertainty surrounding his physical status makes him a difficult valuation for 2027.
Zack Wheeler is priced as the 15th starting pitcher. He finished 2026 with a 3.00 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP. He threw at least six innings in 64% of his starts, a mark that ranks 10th among pitchers. At age 37, and one year removed from thoracic outlet surgery, his risk profile has increased. Managers are willing to take that risk if they can acquire him in the 49th to 65th pick range.
